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In this report, CRS identifies seven possible options, with their implications and attendant risks, for the employment of the military to denuclearize North Korea. These options are based entirely on open-source materials, and do not represent a complete list of possibilities. CRS does not advocate for or against a military response to the current situation. A protracted conflict—particularly one in which North Korea uses its nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons—could cause enormous casualties on a greater scale, and might expand to include Japan and U. Complicating matters, should China choose to join the conflict, those casualty rates could grow further, and could potentially lead to military conflict beyond the peninsula.These options are maintaining the military status quo, enhanced containment and deterrence, denying DPRK acquisition of delivery systems capable of threatening the United States, eliminating ICBM facilities and launch pads, eliminating DPRK nuclear facilities, DPRK regime change, and withdrawing U. CRS cannot verify whether any of these potential options are currently being considered by U. Conservative estimates anticipate that in the first hours of a renewed military conflict, North Korean conventional artillery situated along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) could cause tens of thousands of casualties in South Korea, where at least 100,000 (and possibly as many as 500,000) U. Some analysts contend, however, that the risk of allowing the Kim Jong-un regime to acquire a nuclear weapon capable of targeting the U. homeland is of even greater concern than the risks associated with the outbreak of regional war, especially given Pyongyang’s long history of bombastic threats and aggressive action toward the United States and its allies and the regime’s long-stated interest in unifying the Korean Peninsula on its terms.S./ROK, assuming that neither China nor Russia become involved militarily. In July 2017, North Korea apparently successfully tested its first intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).Should they do so, the conflict would likely become exponentially more complicated. Congress could also consider Though North Korea has been a persistent U. foreign policy challenge for decades, during 2017 the situation evolved to become what many observers assess to be a potential direct security threat to the U. Some observers assert that North Korea has, with these tests, demonstrated a capability of reaching the continental United States, Regardless, these developments, combined with the possibility that the regime in Pyongyang has miniaturized a nuclear weapon, suggest that North Korea could now be only one technical step—mastering reentry vehicle technology—away from being able to credibly threaten the continental United States with a nuclear weapon.
A conflict itself, should it occur, would likely be significantly more complex and dangerous than any of the interventions the United States has undertaken since the end of the Cold War, including those in Iraq, Libya, and the Balkans. military action against North Korea should be taken when there is an "imminent launch" of a North Korean nuclear-armed ICBM aimed at the United States or its allies.
The Republic of Korea, by contrast, has emphasized quality over quantity, and maintains a highly skilled, well-trained, and capable conventional force.
Most students of the regional military balance contend that overall advantage is with the U.
S./ROK, assuming that neither China nor Russia become involved militarily.
Should they do so, the conflict would likely become exponentially more complicated. Congress could also consider the risks associated with the possible employment of military force on the Korean Peninsula against North Korea; the efficacy of the use of force to accomplish the Trump Administration’s strategic goals; whether and when a statutory authorization for the use of U. forces might be necessary, and whether to support such an authorization; what the costs might be of conducting military operations and postconflict reconstruction operations, particularly should a conflict on the Korean Peninsula escalate significantly; the consequences for regional security, regional alliances, and U. security presence in the region more broadly; and the impact that renewed hostilities on the Korean Peninsula might have for the availability of forces for other theaters and contingencies.